VR Sales Analysis: Rift and Vive to Sell Under 500,000 in 2016, PS VR to Top 2 Million

by Joe Durbin • November 14th, 2016

The age of high-end, commercially available virtual reality began on March 28 with the launch of the Oculus Rift.

Since then the HTC Vive, PlayStation VR and Google Daydream View have all entered the arena. The reviews are in, and the software is already being devoured by the ravenous fans of each respective platform. What has not been clear, however, is how each of the combatants is fairing in the battle. However, a new industry report is shining some light on the mysterious state of this increasingly heated competition.

oculus_rift_vs_playstation_vr_vs_htc_vive_design

SuperData Research is a New York based research firm that has been creating detailed reports on the immersive industry for months. Its most recent study centers around likely sales figures for the major VR headsets. The organization found that, by the end of 2016, the Oculus Rift is projected to sell 355,088 units; the HTC Vive will sell 420,108 units; Google Daydream will sell 450,083 units; and the PS VR will sell 2,602,307 units. In addition, the analysis also purports that the Samsung Gear VR — built in collaboration with Oculus — will sell 2,316,632 units. 

UploadVR reached out to SuperData to determine the firm’s process for arriving at these figures:

“SuperData’s approach to the market for consumer-centered virtual reality includes retail checks, executive interviews with decision-makers from all of relevant firms in the marketplace, pricing data, our survey-based consumer tracking panel, and digital content purchases collected from our data providers. We combine both proprietary and public data sources to arrive at an objective reading of the market, including financial information obtained through our client network. Analysts are expressly forbidden to buy, sell, hedge or otherwise deal in the securities of any of the following public companies whose primary revenues come from the creation, selling, or distribution of video games.”

The major VR manufacturers have been understandably quiet on their sales figures at this early market stage. In lieu of any official statement from those in the know at Oculus, HTC, Samsung, Google, Sony or Valve, SuperData’s comprehensive approach serves as our most reliable glimpse yet into the state of these fledgeling product lines.

The firm’s findings do support general industry theorizing and pre-release predictions. The PlayStation VR was predicted to emerge as 2016’s overall sales victor before it even launched. With over 40 million PlayStation 4s in the market, a lower price point and a massive foot in Asia’s door the stage seemed set for the veteran electronics company to trump its competition.

Similarly, the Rift may seem lagging but it is the first official product to be released solely from the Facebook owned Oculus. With a shaky initial launch, the fact that it requires a pricey personal computer to run and little to no market penetration in Asia, it would be more surprising perhaps to see the freshman company cross the 500,000 sales marker this early in its career.

It should also be noted when considering this data in general that electronics sales, particularly new product-types, typically experience dramatic year over year growth. The Apple iPhone, for example, sold only 1.39 million units when it released in 2007 before skyrocketing to 11.63 million in 2008 and over 100 million in 2012.

Official sales data from the major VR companies will be reported here at UploadVR as that information becomes available.

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  • GodMk2

    2 million dissapointed kids by xmas? At least when they go and play on a richer kids Vive. If those sales arent by xmas then expect lower PS VR sales once people get hands on and start posting reviews. Yeah its VR and head tracking works, seated, in a static position as long as you use the regular controller. Move controllers… avoid, turn off the lights and dont sit near anyone. Youll be fine. And dont expect to share the headset at a party.. youll spend more time adjusting it than playing. But for a teenagers bedroom it will do the job. Just not as well as Vive or Rift+Touch which allow well tracked standing play and weapon aiming.

    • dda

      Lol, you sound like a hurt fanboy.

      • GodMk2

        Nope – I’m, running a VR arcade. Done an evaluation of all the tech before committing thousands. Ended up starting with 4 x Vive, 2 x Rift (and the 6x gaming PCs needed to run them) plus 2x gear VR to allow people to compare. Lastly I bought 1 PS VR which now isn’t going in the store. Sadly I think the PS VR has some serious flaws which I’ve summarised above. I’ll be selling mine shortly so keep an eye on ebay 😉 I had high hopes it would be a good in home replacement.. which I suppose in a narrow use case I described… it is. But no use for commerical work.

        • Oh_Oh_SarCastro

          Your last sentence pretty mutch defeats your entire thesis. The PSVR was never designed to be used in a commercial environment. It was designed to be a household game console peripheral. If i buy a cheap electric heater for my bedroom i dont go out and complain that its useless because i can’t keep my VR arcade warm. It was simply never designed for that kind of use.

          • GodMk2

            Yes, but I was also able to compare in home where I was playing it… so it’s not just about commercial use. Sat alongside family and passing the headset around was a PITA trying to adjust it every time you swap person between experiences. You have to sit in an exact spot or the display announced “Out of tracked area”, if you sit in the exact spot on the sofa with your family either side they get punched in the face and groin while playing The Heist so they have to move away to another sofa (Which I don’t have so it was the dining table). When doing the underwater trip you end up on your knees on the sofa if you want to look behind you. If you drop something on the floor in a game – like a clip and naturally bend down to pick it up, it resets your position, and then resets it again when you come back up. If you try and stand to shoot – it resets the position, and announces “out of tracked area” if you move a bit too much as you don’t want to get shot. Playing the ghost train title – I had to put cushions high behind the sofa to stop family members getting brain injuries at the jump scares when then hit their head on the wall. The virtual hands aren’t where your hands should be, despite repeated attempts to adjust them (trust me I really really wanted this to work) and then the aiming it a big hit and miss… your first 2 shots are to work out where the bullets are going. Add the light leaks which cause reflections in the lenses (now I know why at the game expos they’ve been demoing them in a matt black room with black carpet and no lighting). I really wanted to like the PS VR and wanted to get 4 of them for use in my arcade in multiplayer. But after a couple of weeks with it, I’m sad to say other than a limited use case of a solo player in a dark bedroom, it’s not a family entertainment device that it’s marketed as. Which is why I’m saying I think once the reviews (like this one) start to get out there, I think sales will drop off and its won’t hit 2 million. It’s a shame as the games are actually well done. Better than the Vive (for now). But what is letting it down is the hardware. The headset needs a redesign to pull the mask on your face to stop light leaks – I had considered a DIY job with elastic – but it’s not what I want. Then the move controllers simply aren’t tracked well enough to do what is asked of them. They were designed to give a basic motion input into games – not accurate 3d positional tracking. If you stay stilll your hands start jumping about in front of you as the camera doesn’t know how far away they are. They need to go back to the drawing board on these. And also bin the “you must stay in this position” approach to headset tracking – and allow you some freedom.
            In comparison both the Vive and Rift offer pin sharp tracking I was surprised to find the Rift isn’t forcing you to stay in a seated position.. .it was able to track me in a roughly 2m diameter circle. So eagerly await the Touch controllers. According to people who’ve had a demo they are even better than the Vive controllers – which are good enough to shoot a Barret sniper rifle at 400m in Hotdogs horse shoes and hand grenades. But you’ll need to lie on the floor, hold your breath and squeeze the trigger gently. I await PS VR2.0 with baited breath. I’m no fan boy of any particular brand, but stuff has to work in the wild. Not just a dark demo pod at trade shows.

          • CA

            Appreciate the writeup, good info.

          • Dan Eagen

            I don’t know about you but I don’t want anyone around me while I’m using VR because maybe 20% of the usage will be for non-porn. Yeah the initial response for gaming and immersion might be meh, bit it was the same with HD. Porn is what catapulted HD according to virtually every analyst.

          • Blinky

            In fact, the porn industries’ embrace of BlueRay over HD DVD is what killed HD DVD. (Same for Betamax).

          • yag

            That’s actually a myth, porn was released also onto HD DVD and Betamax by many companies.

          • mailr

            Hey GodMk2! I’ve been also thinking about opening up a VR arcade (in Germany). I’d love to get in touch with you, I have a few questions and I hope you can help me. You can write mit at mail_r(at)web(dot)de

          • GodMk2

            Best option is to sign up to Viveport (even if you arent planning on using Vives). There’s several of us on there now posting to a thread HTC started to talk to potential arcade owners following the Viveland launch. I’m trying to steer the industry a bit as its early days. I’ve been running market trials since June 😉 Licensing was hardwork… but both HTC and Steam are getting their act together to make it easier, just in different ways.

          • DougP

            Re: “If i buy a cheap electric heater for my bedroom”
            I don’t know if *cheap* is a fair description.
            I mean it’s like $500 compare to say $800 for the Vive system & $879+ for the Rift.
            None of those are exactly *cheap*.
            Particularly if you don’t already own a PS4 (or better yet, better recommended) upgrading to the the PS4 Pro.

            If someone’s an avid gamer that already has a PC gaming rig, cheapest complete solution would be the Vive.

          • Jonathan

            You mean if someone is an avid gamer, has a gaming quality PC, and doesn’t have a PS4, then it’s the cheapest option. But even then it’s not cheaper, but just equal.

            And to GodMK2’s points: I disagree. I’ve taken the PSVR to a party and had it pass between 15 different people without issue. It’s an easy setup and very easy to move from person to person. And we weren’t just playing sitting games — Job Simulator and Catlateral Damage were played without issue. (Although, someone did get punched in the face with Catlateral Damage… that’s bound to happen in that game.)

            I’m not saying that the PSVR tracks as well as the Vive. But it works, it’s easy, and it’s cheaper.

          • GodMk2

            Based in your constructive feedback I shall give it another try. Youll see from other posts I’m trying to get my head round why it isnt giving a satisfactory experience. People may think the vive is complicated but i dont get as messed up in the wires as i do on the PSVR. Just havent found a happy way to route the headphones from the inline cable and not feel them ruining the immersion. Ive swapped the earbuds for on ear senheisers so dont know what to try next.

          • MistaBoutThat

            To slide the headset backwards and forwards (and eliminate light leak), press the button on the lower right corner beneath the display.

            As for the earphone issue; it was a problem I never knew I had. I use athletic style “hook-type” earbuds.

          • GodMk2

            I have found a place where the light leaks less. But it relies on having the headset pushed forwards which then doesn’t feel comfy. No manner of unlocking, sliding the slider or twisting the twister, or pushing and pulling gets it just right. Maybe my excessive brain size (being a god isn’t easy) lol. Still I’ll give it more time before writing it off. I’d actually like to be able to sell them from my store… but I have too much ethics to be a salesman, I could only sell something I think is good at its job. I think what I need is to get more people other than me to try it and see how they get on. Maybe setting it up while not in the headset – I’ll be able to work it out. Then its just those move controllers! 🙁

          • Chris Utirons

            Have made the same experience PSVR is easy to use on a party or with some friends.

          • G-man

            hahaha, what? heaters put out a limit of btus. what exactly is the limit of a vr headset? how many heads you can put n it at once? if anything it does scale, a vive can do 5m x 5m, do you know many homes that have that space just going spare? the fact psvr is limited doesnt matter, it can be put in a limited space in a vr arcade and be a cheaper option with different games.

        • Athmet

          You have a website or location for this VR Arcade you are running?

          • GodMk2

            Yes. But not really ready to go live. Still waiting on the lawyers to sort the lease so have a garage full of kit in the meantime. Not much use to most of you as I’m in the UK. It will be up on here as soon as I have a moving in date. Probably about 4 weeks work to do from when I get the keys.

          • boomboomk9000

            Translation: there is no VR Arcade.

          • GodMk2

            I dont need to validate what i say but here’s your proof… Thats nearly £20k in various bits and pieces waiting for a permanent home. No site details as if you understand Customer touch points you don’t want to be posting detail in public to a half arsed website thats there just to stop cyber sqautters who register it on the back of your ltd company registration. Theres 4x vive 2x rift a ps vr next to the rifts and a bunch of pc parts and AV gear.
            https://uploads.disquscdn.com/images/41f3342cedb0f802b744e8343b49a8888e2f33a297469782ca27ccba2ef95fa7.jpg
            I forgot buried under rhere somewhere are 2x gear vr and S6 and S7 phones to stick in them.

          • Newbtastic

            Lemme know when you get you VR arcade up and running. I’d love to check it out whenever I get a chance to visit the UK. 🙂

    • Bryan Ischo

      I agree that the PSVR is significantly worse as a headset in most ways, but most people buying it will not have a competing VR system to compare against and won’t know the difference. They’ll still have fun and be happy which is really all that matters.

      • GodMk2

        I think there may be one place where it can redeem itself… and I’ve yet to try… driving games. Given I’ll be using the old Driving Force GT from my PS3 I may have a change of heart. As then the controller input is correct for the experience so Ill be taking a look at whatever road based titles there are. On Vive Project Cars in VR is pretty damn game changing… cant play it on a flat screen anymore. But even on a 1080 I’ve been struggling to hit 90fps. New i7 6700k build in process. The old clunker was a 4820k with 1600Mhz ram and a mobo which wont go above 1800. New one is starting with 3200 and capable of 3866 or something. Think it was bottlenecking as CPU running 50 to 55% And GPU around 60!!?? That or thermals.. my 1080 is a founders edition. So an EK waterblock and a couple of meters of hard pipe is sitting in a box ready for the PC build starting on wednesday.

        • GodMk2

          LOL Steering wheels! MY PS3 Driving Force GT isn’t compatible with the PS4. But it is compatible with the PC. The old Xbox controllers didn’t work on PC. I wonder if they work on PS4!? Not that I’d use one commercially, but would at least want to see how the game drove before shelling out £££ on a Fanatec/TM T500RS. Why why why? Surely it’s got to be just a usb1.1 device that says gives a series of items with a code value? Whatever.

    • Oh_Oh_SarCastro

      I played on the rift shortly after got my psvr. It made me even more happy with my psvr.

      • Tom

        Well that makes sense. It’s nearly as good, but for a fraction of the price.

        • DougP

          Re: “for a fraction of the price”
          A *fraction* – $500 vs $800 for far less capabilities?

          • Dan Eagen

            Add the $1400 PC vs a $400 ps4 pro so yeah the PlayStation version is comparatively “cheap”

          • DougP

            Well, I looked up PS4 Pro price & they’re $500 where I live.
            As well there are now “VR ready” PCs for $500 with the latest gen GPUs – so quite a bit more horsepower than PS4 Pro.
            So price there is “a wash”.

            Putting that aside…
            It’s highly likely that you’re going to have 2x types of customers:
            1) someone who’s a “console gamer” who already has a PS4 (or is going to upgrade)
            2) PC gamer, not interested in console gaming
            In both cases the *machine* running it is mute…or possibly the case where each would upgrade (PS4 Pro or PC buying new card) – again “a wash”.

            So we’re back to just the difference in price of $500 to $800, which isn’t that big of a difference. Particularly for the better capabilities of the PC solution.
            As well, just factor in say the 1st year or two of *use* – you pay a premium for PS4 games, so that $300 difference (premium) for the PC would diminish to inconsequential very rapidly. Unless of course a person’s not planning on buying games.

            So …it’s not comparatively cheap. It’s definitely NOT “a fraction of the price”, as I was originally responding to.

          • Lamanuwa

            I own both the Rift and PSVR. It’s not just room scale. It’s also the optics. PSVR has clear lenses, and is very very comfortable to play games in than the Rift.
            I’ve never had as much fun playing with Rift as I do with PSVR. I didn’t think it was possible.

          • Dan Eagen

            The cheapest rx480 (the cheapest vr card) is $200 and that’s with 4 GB. How can you build a PC sans GPU that can support VR for $300?

          • DougP

            Just sent you a link (separately) but site is blocking address.
            $499 CyberPower PC is an example.

          • Tom

            Well sure PSVR is less capable, but it is cheaper too. That assumes you own both a PS4 and a high-end PC, or neither of them.

            I don’t know about “far less” capable though, it should at least approach the quality of experience of the Rift/Vive desktop HMDs, if not exactly match it.

          • GodMk2

            Its apples and oranges… 2 totally different class systems. PSVR is £800 for a consumer level system. Rift and Vive are £1500 min (i5/1070) £2000(i7/1080) perfection. Its like trying to compare a Tesla to a Nissan leaf because they both have a battery and electric motors. What I want to know is how to get the PS VR working in a way that doesnt annoy the crap out of me. Those of you that like it.. especially the move… where is your camera located… high/low, distance to seated position. Do you play standing or seated? What sort of lighting do you have – directional spots, wide beam cfls, what light levels do you have while playing? How do you deal with the cables? How do you stop light leaks? Is there an easy way to adjust the headset for different sized heads when passing it around? If there are solutions.. tell me. Or maybe no one noticed. Or maybe people defending it haven’t bought one yet? Or have bought one but feel the need to justify their purchase. Don’t think of me as some random bloke mouthing off attacking it.. I’m dropping over £50k on VR kit over the next few months and dont want my whole business to fail because VR gets a bad name due to poor PS VR (&google cardboard) VR experiences. I’d prefer to find solutions and then be the helpful guy on forums saying… so and so site has replacement face masks that block the light and a headstrap with a simpler adjuster.

          • Brian Morris

            Hi there GodMk2, I got a PSVR on day one, I’m based in the UK. I’m not sure how you’re gonna translate into an arcade experience, but I’ve listed my thoughts to your questions below;

            1. I don’t have any Move controllers, i use the dual shock for the games i have – EVE Valkyrie, Battlezone, Playroom VR (don’t underestimate the value of this for a “kiddies” experience in your arcade), various demos, EVE Gunjack and the recent COD VR mission (short but promising for a full game, if that’s their plan).

            2. My TV doesn’t really allow the recommended “on top of the TV” position so i have mine mounted on some kids Megablocks at approx height 1200mm, in front of the TV.

            3. I sit around 3m from the camera. The games i have only really lend themselves to seated play, but i have done standing for some of the demo experiences on the PS VR demo disc, like the ocean dive. However, when i have stood up to look around say in EVE, i’ve never had any major issues with tracking etc.

            4. Lighting is a typical lounge with the curtains drawn. So could be daylight seeping through, or a paasage light on which is through a door behind and to the left of me so not pitch black by any stretch. The only issue i’ve seen with tracking and lighting was having an uplighter lamp on behind me that caused a bright spot on one corner of the headset. The tracking didn’t like that, but turn the lamp off, no problem.

            5. The cables are not an issue sitting, but i see they could be in the way whilst standing and doing 360. My plan was “velcro straps” to hold the cables to your body or arm or somewhere, but not done that yet.

            6. I can honestly say the light leaks have never bothered me. Initially i was aware of it, but once you get stuck into an EVE battle(!), i don’t notice it anymore. I’ve never had light reflecting off the lenses, so not sure about that.

            7. You adjust the size by pushing the white button on the back. You can then just pull it bigger, put it on the new head and the “elasticated” mechanism closes it. I do this all the time on Playroom between my 2 kids. Also, as long as you’re on the same sofa, i’ve never had any issues. One thing you might need to do is press and hold “Options” which re-centres the VR display for the new position.

            I’m in no way a VR expert, I’ve only used PSVR and none of the others, but for a business like an arcade, i’m guessing people want to put money in the slot and just have some fun. I think PSVR will do that. You look at some of the YouTube vids of people trying it out. My experience of PSVR has really been nothing but positive. OK, it’s not perfect, but it’s also not prohibitively expensive and easy to use, but i have no other experience to compare it to. My suggestion for the VR arcade would be to try it on your customers.

            I mean, who doesn’t want to fly an X-wing…? 😉

            All the best with it

          • GodMk2

            Thanks for the comprehesive reply Brian.. better when people can snap out of the x is better than y arguments and realise I have some serious issues. Seated play is probably the area I want the PS VR to work best. Then people can come in have a good hour or on it before making a decision to buy.. from me or elsewhere. Your issue with the lights may be something affecting me. At home I have T bar spots throwing light on the walls. Going to try moving them about and see if things get better. Luckily my shop has no direct daylight, just what comes down an atrium, so less likely to have a problem, well other than its brilliant white. I dont think Sony painted their display pods matt black just for effect! Sounds like I might have to get a few more titles as well to try , shame 😉 Eve is a bit pricey though IIRC…For driving games I’m trying to get my hands on a T500RS at the mo… no point doing it on the old cheapo Force GT.

          • Brian Morris

            Yeah, EVE is pricey but a good demonstration of what VR can be like, but the free COD mission is also pretty cool, and you don’t need COD to play it. It’s standalone.. EVE Gunjack is simple but effective too, and cheap on PS store. My only comment about driving games is the Driveclub demo is not that good, in my opinion. I haven’t played the full game, and I think the issue (to me anyway) is the lighting in the game. Both demos races in the game are set at 17:30 in the evening so it’s kind of twilight…doesn’t do the game justice, if you ask me. It’s also the only game I’ve had any motion problems with. If you want a small piece of advice, especially if you want to sell PSVR, try and avoid using the driveclub demo. I’m sure the full game is different. There’s also some free VR animated films on the PS Store, invasion and allumette. They’re fun to show the immersion aspects of VR. Anyway, hope I’ve helped, good luck with it. By the way, where you planning to have your arcade?

          • JustSanePerson

            For trouble tracking I would make sure you do not have too many Wi-Fi or Bluetooth devices running as they use the same frequencies as the controllers. Do not play after the machine has been in sleep mode as the tracking does not work right no matter how much you reset or calibrate due to some unknown bug. No lights or anything visually contrasty in the view of the camera as tracking is all about the camera seeing the LEDs of the controllers and headset.

          • Chris Utirons

            Adjusting the PSVR Headset is very easy just press the button at the back of the head set to fit it to your head and at the lense part you have also a button to adjust it to your favor. It was really easy. I dont have it for my self i was on a PSVR party where we all tried it out. We played in a room with not much light there were some dimed lights and it was evening.

          • GodMk2

            Tried that. Still got leaks. 🙁

          • DougP

            Re: “but it is cheaper too”
            Understood, however, I was mostly commenting on the “fraction of the price” not being accurate.
            I mean, there are now $500 “VR ready” PCs (next gen chips, capable of 90fps & HQ graphics) – so compared to PS4 Pro, that’s about “a wash”.
            Then you have the $300 ($500 PSVR vs $800 Vive) –
            That will very rapidly dwindle to an inconsequential difference in price once you factor in the “console premium” you pay for games. Frequently those PC games will be sold for less. Just look at the average cost of games (same AAA titles) that PC users wind up paying vs consoles.
            I’d say conservatively within 2yrs of VR *ownership* that $300 would disappear in savings for games. Perhaps much sooner, if you’re like me & already have 170 titles in your library. 😉

            Also, the “indie community” – lots more bang-for-buck with EA titles on Steam, from $2-3 or top notch titles for $15 range.
            But that’s another topic entirely.

          • JustSanePerson

            We already know there are new headsets coming out next year for around $300 for the PC platform.

    • PocketCommie

      Disappointed kids? Very doubtful. While it may not be the quality of the Vive, it’s still pretty bloody impressive. The Move controllers have been working just fine for me, btw. London Heist and Until Dawn work great with the move. I choose the move over the dual shock on any game that gives me the option.

      • GodMk2

        Can you explain your play area? Decor, light levels etc. If theres a knack I’d like to know rather than binning it. I’m not the only one having issues, but neither is everyone saying its pants. Lets learn how to work it and share the results.

        • PocketCommie

          I use a projector, so I keep my room fairly dark when playing anything VR or not. No direct artificial light. Some natural light bleeding in through the windows (which are covered in partial blackout curtains). Light in the other side of the living room is usually on, but that’s like 20 feet away from my VR setup. Camera sits on a table probably 3 feet high. I sit on my couch around 6 feet away.

      • Lamanuwa

        Yeah, having owned both Rift and PSVR, I can say the games are the most important factor that puts PSVR ahead. Also comfort is in a different league. No godrays. I love it.

    • SimonPieman

      PSVR offers 80% of the experience at 20% of the TCO. It’s backed by a game company, and not having to hope you get games, and there is a install base of 60m PS4 units. You only need a couple of percent to have a healthy userbase. Healthy userbase means it’s the default platform for VR titles.

      Enjoy your niche, overpriced product, I hope for your sake you get the games you want. PlayStation owners don’t have that worry…

      • GodMk2

        You dont need to justify PS VR to yourself by denigrating others. I’m tech neutral and do A vs B comparison …id happily take one if it worked… especially as I’m planning on owning 50+ VR systems given the cost savings that will bring!! There’s already enough titles on Vive for me. Got about 10 downloaded I havent even played yet. I’m still trying to work out why it isnt working before selling it. See my post elsewhere in the thread. Maybe racing games will be where it excels!? More time playing less time working what graphics settings are needed.. only 2 choices PS4 or pro.

    • Zack71

      Two millions PS VR = all games only for PS VR = HTC Vive Sucks

      • GodMk2

        Useless fanboy?

      • evensi

        Console peasantry at its finest.

        • Zack71

          Simply the Truth!
          I love pc too, I have waited for Oculus for many years, but the real truth is that now the best VR medium is PS4.

  • Dylan

    I actually think that’s pretty good, if not -extremely- good. VR is not a product that has an everyday practical use yet (making calls/taking notes/getting email/planning your day/etc)- Unlike the iPhone was. Another key aspect here is that the iPhone had NO REAL COMPETITION. When apple decided to stick a phone in their iPod PDA, others swiftly followed suit. This was before the era of kickstarter – Oculus proof of concept hardware tipped off the industry to it’s potential, and there was competition from day 1. iPhone launched on June 29th, 9 years ago. VR “soft launched” in March, but consumer headsets were not available for retail purchase broadly from any vendor, without pre-order until october. If VR doesn’t multiply by a factor of AT LEAST 10x in Q1 2017 (with the broad release of room-scale and 3x major platform independant headsets, AND wirelessly on the horizon) I will be beyond shocked – but even if it doesn’t, it’s important to note that the “everyday use” of pure VR is still on the horizon.

    • Dylan

      It’s probably true that the everyday use of VR headsets will be immersive cinema. I think they’ll catch on in the same way VHS/DVD/Blu-Ray/HDTV did. If you want to watch, you’ll need the hardware. As more and more immersive cinema is released, more and more people will need a way to access it. This is attractive to filmmakers, because it’s currently an insurmountable form of DRM, as well.

      • GodMk2

        Have you watched much. I tried a few when I first got my gear vr. Then again when I got the Vive. But then I stopped bothering. Worried 360 movies are a fad like 3d tv. There’s a couple of nice bits like (hmmn whats it called???) the animation with the rabbit and aliens, and the promo by Chris Milk. But other than that all I’ve seen is mushy poorly stitched not very entertaining stuff. Needs a new grammer of film making to get right. Whats the point of 360 if the action is taking place in the 180 semisphere in front of you? For me at least I want interaction when I’m wearing the HMD or I get fidgety and frustrated just sitting there. Not everyone is like me though. A colleague says he like watching 2D movies on his Gear VR in the theatre. I’ve got a 4k TV so the idea of watching a 180″ virtual screen with only 1000 x 1080 res doesn’t appeal.

        • Dylan

          360 video is a non-starter. Even 3d360 video, while better, is no good. I’m talking about experiences like “Henry” and “Invasion!”

          • GodMk2

            Ah invasion that was it!! Not VR but best attempt I’ve seen at 3d 360. Think being animated is key… any live action stuff is usually trash as the compression needed and resolution available is too low. When they can stream 16k video into 4k per eye headsets (4k per 90 degree field of view) just passing the bits you are looking at, they might be onto a winner. Meanwhile stick with simpler lower polygon animations with large flat areas of colour and it will compress ok.

        • Dylan

          Pay very close attention to volumetric solutions like HypeVR. I have a low cost volumetric solution I’m working on too, but we’ll see where it goes – I lack the time to turn the theory into code.

    • DougP

      Re: “VR is not a product that has an everyday practical use yet
      Have you not heard of VR porn?!
      j/k aside…
      I think that you’re looking at this wrong. Comparing VR to requiring some pragmatic *use*, something you need to device for or that’s made very convenient by it.
      Otherwise, the same argument could be made for game consoles.
      The most popular *use* of VR, at the moment, is just entertainment & gaming.
      What VR hardware is able to do is substantially improve the quality of the experience, by increasing the immersion.
      I was more of a very casual gamer, until I got into VR – it both increased my *use* of gaming PC, as well as now I don’t want to game without VR.

  • Ombra Alberto

    I do not think that will sell PSvr 2000000 pieces. But I think Vive + Oculus will sell more than 500,000 pieces.

  • Doctor Bambi

    Exciting info for sure. Holiday 2017 will be a very telling time for VR. I remember being so excited about the Nintendo DS. I ranted and raved about it to all my friends and family. That year I got one and loved it. But I remember the following Christmas, on national news, a lady held up a Nintendo DS claiming this device to be the hottest gift of the year. Seems to be a trend that it takes a year or two for the rest of the world to catch up with the nerds.

    Bare your torches bright fellow VR enthusiast! The rest of the world follows in our wake!

  • Doubtful. I’d divide it by two for all headsets.

    • AtmosContagion

      It’s possible; stats gathered a couple of months ago put the Vive at about 140k and many devs with experiences on both Steam and Oculus Home place the Rift at roughly around the same number of users as Vive. We’ve also seen some numbers leaked and tossed around that put monthly sales at about 40k for the Vive (and if we are going by the devs saying that, at least for their specific apps, Vive and Rift have roughly the same number of users, it means that RIft has kept pace). So, we are probably sitting at about 250-300k for each and with holiday sales just beginning, I’m sure we’ll see a slightly larger than usual per month number of sales; November and December sales would seem to place them safely around 350-400k sales each.

      This is just from rough data that pretty much anyone has access too; I’m sure these analytic companies have access to a bit more accurate data. Of course this is all just predictions from observed trends; it’s possible that sales grind to halt during the holiday season as consumer funds are allocated elsewhere lol (or even that the data is false and the numbers have been manipulated to inflate sales numbers across the board).

  • jimrp

    Vive or Oculus for me next year. I need to see what Vive 2 is offering first.

    • DougP

      Re: “next year. I need to see what Vive 2 is offering first.”
      Depending on how late you’re planning on waiting, you might not see a Vive 2 soon enough.
      With wireless already out as an add-on & possible upgraded motion controllers & new peripherals, as well as improved + more efficient (higher quality!) rendering techniques, allowing supersampling which makes the visuals look even higher res… don’t see any urgent need for a Vive 2.
      Additionally, HTC has said that they’re only in very early stages & don’t have definitive plans yet. From final design to production pipeline, you’re looking at another substantial timegap.
      It’s more likely we’ll see a Vive 1.5/refresh – perhaps improved ergonomics (lighter with newer sensors), bundled with wireless and/or new controller.

  • Jim Cherry

    considering psvr will only have been on the market 7 weeks i find the 2 mill figure highly unlikely maybe if they extend the measure to march of next year.

  • Constantin S.

    I definetly think this target is reachable, hopefully we’ll have more reports in January.

  • DougP

    Re: “began on March 28 with the launch of the Oculus Rift” / “HTC Vive, PlayStation VR and Google Daydream View have all entered the arena”

    So the Vive went on sale within weeks of the Rift & it shipped larger quantities into the hands of the masses before it, yet:
    ‘Rift began it all! Later Vive/others entered arena’
    Wow – could’ve been written Oculus’ PR department. Ironic that the opposite could’ve been said – ~9mos after the Vive system landed in people’s hands, Rift ‘entered the arena’ of room-scale & motion tracking, alongside Google Daydream & Playstation.

    But what’s more confusing is that the author conveniently leaves out Google Cardboard & the Gear VR, which has probably sold more than any of the other HMDs to date, from both the title & introductory coverage.

    • Mike

      I have read so many of these articles and actually enjoy the comment section just as much and see your name all the time, usually arguing with someone. You sir, have a serious issue with your Fanboyisum (I am aware you are about to correct me and say you aren’t a fanboy but I’m pretty sure you are, either a fanboy or someone who is wishing they bought the competing system and is trying to justify their purchase and how everyone else that likes that competing system is wrong and they just don’t understand).

      If you don’t want to read the below. I can shorten it to this.
      Who cares!

      If i’m not mistaken Oculus was first into the market with serious usable VR and Vive came along later. Steam/HTC saw and opportunity and created a competing system and they did a far better job with the launch by having controllers (until December), As a technicality. It did begin with the Rift and the Vive did come after, even a few weeks is still after.

      My main point. Who cares who came first!, who cares which model sells the most! The key thing here is people gaining access to VR and loving it. the industry taking note and creating content which is highly likely to be usable on all systems. The more units out there the more people will be wowed and want it themselves. My brother came to try my Rift and fell in love. He couldn’t afford a new PC and the Rift but already had a PS4. So he bought PSVR and is extremely happy, Even the Gear VR inspired my 60 year old mother to get a new phone and the gear. 4 million units with good quality like PSVR will go along way to pushing this market place to where it needs to be. Even if they do focus on 180 degree seated titles, those titles have their place just as much as full 360 titles who cares!

      Get over the “Mine is better than yours” already and enjoy the ride, watching an amazing industry grow and learn. VR reminds me of my youth, the days of seeing Amstrad CPC 464 games, Amiga, Commodore 64 (Console Version), NES to Mega Drive to PlayStation. Those were great days seeing game technology grow like that. I can’t wait to see what we have in 10 years time. Possibilities we haven’t considered, new players in the market and Vive or Rift could be replaced and we will all remember the good ole day when we got to try commercial grade VR for the first time, when we describe it the kids looking at use like we just tried explaining what VHS or Betamax meant for recording TV and watching it back.

    • GodMk2

      I’ve now got a Rift as well as a Vive. Its not all seated stuff and a lot of Vive titles run on Rift too thru steam. Think once touch comes out it will go down to comfort and cost of games and how much space you have to play. So no clear winner.. personal circumstances. Personally the rift sits badly on my forehead so get headache after 30 minutes. It will then come doen to what titles are available… eg I like luckys tale… a lot, which as someone who cant stand platform games says a lot! Nut prefer the full roomscale stuff like Onwards and Raw Data, so will be exploring extra Rift sensors to see how it compares. Biggest issue… can rift support more than 1 HMD in a play space.

    • Lamanuwa

      I agree that not having tracked controllers for the Rift when it first shipped was a bad idea. But room scale tracking isn’t just about having it or not. As it stands, it’s very expensive. When a mainstream solution for this feature is in place, I’d be happy to give it a go. As for now, owning a Rift and PSVR, all I can say is PSVR got most of the important stuff for the first generation of VR absolutely right at that price point.

      I find lots of PSVR users posting that they don’t have enough space to even play the games that were designed for the Move peripheral let alone room scale tracking.

      There’s a lot to be perfected, but this is the generation of VR we are in right now. Artificially pushing it may only break the market before it starts. Say if PSVR came with a $200 new tracking system, it would make the unit less attractive in terms of price. It can still be done though.

    • AtmosContagion

      A lot of people give credit to Oculus because of the dk1 and dk2 headsets rekindling interest in VR almost, what? 5 years ago now?

      The Vive was pretty much a no name newcomer when it was first announced, but had the backing of Valve which helped to popularize it quite a bit after Facebook bought Oculus and many felt betrayed by the purchase (… because Facebook lol).

      Also, the Rift has been able to do room scale since launch due to the LEDs on the rear of the headset; it was just unfortunately missing motion controls. PSVR on the other hand is a bit more limited than it’s PC counterparts, but still seems to provide a great experience for the most part. PSVR currently serves well as a great entry point into higher end VR, which I think is what counts at this point.

      While Sony is being a bit of a pain with exclusivity deals, it’s really only natural on consoles unfortunately. I really hope that Microsoft’s “play anywhere” initiative takes off and Scorpio’s VR will be at least on par with PSVR, because at least we have more options at that point that may force Sony to loosen up on exclusivity a bit. Oculus on the other hand… well, I’m just glad they quickly backpedaled on “trying” to hardware lock (this just ends up creating an arms race and the resulting nuclear fallout is just bad for everyone…). Hopefully, the backlash from that incident eventually leads Oculus to allow official support of other HMDs through some means, but unfortunately they not only have competing hardware, but also competing storefronts. I doubt we’ll see native support anytime soon, but maybe they’ll give a bit and at least use a wrapper like steamvr does for rift support.

      In any case, devs will probably gravitate to the platform that allows for more streamlined development and releases, meaning that many may choose to use SteamVR just because both Rift users and Vive users can play the games through their sdk. That’s not to say that Rift support on SteamVR is great; they’ll have to work on that to really win over rift users. This kind of puts the whole situation into a bit of stalemate; devs will want to develop more on SteamVR because they can access both Vive and Rift users, but those same potential Rift users may give up on SteamVR due to certain bugs and things.

      We’ll just have to see how things go in the future. It’s not like we can’t jump ship if we need to in the future (having choices is always a good thing). There is also the dark horse of Microsoft’s WIndows Holographic on the horizon, which may be able to tie together the different PC VR user bases once and for all (it could be the directX of VR or something).

  • EQRG_Chevalier

    Sony is such an A**hole of a company. Having worked in the tech field, they were the worst to do business with, even Apple was better back then. boycotted them for years and for good reason anyone remember the audio cd malware debacle?

  • Number of Oculus and Vive are inline on what I expected. And I’m sure that some people own both. Daydream and PSVR numbers seem to me a bit too big for the few months in which they’ve been available… but I’m not an analyst, so that’s ok, it may be true

  • RationalThought

    I think all the numbers for VIVE and Rift are off. 500-600k easy by years end. I think 100-200k sold in US, Europe and South East Asia is a fairly modest expectation and that’s not counting other locations that will get several thousand of each. 118K DK2’s shipped for Oculus……I suspect their consumer version sold several times more and a good bit higher than expectations and I see Vive probably doing much better than expected also. Would be nice if the companies actually released the specific numbers.

  • dave hug

    numbers game is useless here it’s like trying to compare wii hardware sales to xbox 360 or ps3 and say wii was everywhere, but at the same time nothing sold on it. Vive is the only true VR experience the rest are cheap alternatives. while the best does not always win this is steam we are talking about people will port VR games to pc which right now is the leading gaming platform by a large bit. the huge gap in quality VR impressiveness with vive and its position for a price drip coming up (already had a 100 drop for black friday) will secure its market share in the long run.

    No one counts gear VR, so it’s massive units sold puts PSVR in the same spot, no one touches VIVE’S library of games and easy and open development tools, anyone could make a game for vive, as apposed to a console VR with very limited and restrictive publishing standards

  • jimrp

    A 100,000+ is good for what you have to buy to play for first gen. When it hits that 350 like promised with atleast 1440p it will be showing gains faster.

  • yag

    These “analysts” make themselves ridiculous by giving such precise numbers…